Golden cross and death cross history
Every 50/200 golden and death cross we have confirmed since 2017, on 8,779 US tickers - 131,781 crosses in total. The chart below draws them one dot per cross, golden above the line and death below. On the right side of the chart, we show the crosses that our model is projecting in the near future. Where the open projections lean right now, and what that has meant, is on the Market page.
Cross record
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Model track record 2,533,167projections scored
Countdowns, calls made 15 bars or closer: 78% landed within 2 bars (1,533,286 projections).
Range calls, 16 to 30 bars out: 47% landed inside the estimated range, 68% inside the wider band (941,094 projections, daily and 4-hour).
Range calls on the weekly are not scored: the weekly shows no time range.
The site names a bar when a call is 15 bars out or closer and an estimated range beyond that, so each call is scored by the claim it made. How each call is scored.
daily
| called | n | landed on the bar | within 1 | within 2 | vs chance | inside the range | inside the wider band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| called 1-3 bars out | 192,599 | 75% | 96% | 98% | 41× | ||
| called 4-6 bars out | 184,315 | 42% | 81% | 90% | 30× | ||
| called 7-10 bars out | 214,603 | 23% | 58% | 75% | 26× | ||
| called 11-15 bars out | 234,529 | 12% | 35% | 53% | 18× | ||
| all countdowns, called 1 to 15 bars out | 826,046 | 36% | 65% | 77% | 28× | ||
| called 16-20 bars out | 212,330 | 7% | 20% | 33% | 12× | - | - |
| called 21-30 bars out | 323,605 | 4% | 12% | 20% | 7× | - | - |
| all range calls, called 16 to 30 bars out | 535,935 | 25% | 9× | 47% | 69% | ||
| every call, within 2 bars whatever the distance (the old way) | 1,361,981 | 24% | 45% | 57% | 20× |
4-hour
| called | n | landed on the bar | within 1 | within 2 | vs chance | inside the range | inside the wider band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| called 1-3 bars out | 144,550 | 76% | 96% | 98% | 38× | ||
| called 4-6 bars out | 138,446 | 45% | 82% | 91% | 29× | ||
| called 7-10 bars out | 159,912 | 25% | 60% | 77% | 25× | ||
| called 11-15 bars out | 176,954 | 12% | 36% | 55% | 18× | ||
| all countdowns, called 1 to 15 bars out | 619,862 | 38% | 67% | 79% | 26× | ||
| called 16-20 bars out | 159,834 | 7% | 21% | 35% | 12× | - | - |
| called 21-30 bars out | 245,325 | 4% | 12% | 20% | 7× | - | - |
| all range calls, called 16 to 30 bars out | 405,159 | 26% | 9× | 46% | 68% | ||
| every call, within 2 bars whatever the distance (the old way) | 1,025,021 | 25% | 46% | 58% | 20× |
weekly
| called | n | landed on the bar | within 1 | within 2 | vs chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| called 1-3 bars out | 19,846 | 75% | 96% | 98% | 38× |
| called 4-6 bars out | 19,193 | 43% | 80% | 89% | 28× |
| called 7-10 bars out | 22,677 | 23% | 58% | 75% | 24× |
| called 11-15 bars out | 25,662 | 12% | 35% | 54% | 18× |
| all countdowns, called 1 to 15 bars out | 87,378 | 36% | 65% | 77% | 26× |
| called 16-20 bars out | 23,305 | 7% | 21% | 35% | 12× |
| called 21-30 bars out | 35,482 | 4% | 13% | 21% | 7× |
| all range calls, called 16 to 30 bars out | 58,787 | 26% | 9× | ||
| every call, within 2 bars whatever the distance (the old way) | 146,165 | 24% | 45% | 57% | 19× |
vs chance is the column to read first. On any given bar about 3% of tickers happen to cross inside a two-bar window anyway - that is the bar every number here has to clear. 1× would mean we added nothing. Everything above it is the part we built.
How each call is scored. Every number here comes from replaying the model back to 2017, with nothing after each bar visible to it; a cross that never came, or came the other way, is a miss. A countdown is a hit when the cross lands within 2 bars of the bar we named. A range call is a hit when the cross lands inside the estimated range we print for a call that far out: the middle half of where such calls landed up to the end of 2023 (the wider band is the middle 80%). The ranges come from the same replay's calls up to the end of 2023, and this record includes those years, so the range line is partly a check against the calls the ranges were drawn from. Chance for a range call is the share of all bars whose next cross falls inside a window that wide, so a wider claim has to clear a higher bar. The tables above score every call by the bar, within 0, 1 and 2 bars of it, and the range calls by the range as well, as one group.
Cruxta · 50/200 moving-average crosses on US equities. Recorded crosses are observations. Projected crosses are projections, not advice.