Every 50/200 golden and death cross we have confirmed since 2017, on 8,303 US tickers - 128,522 crosses in total. The chart below draws them one dot per cross, golden above the line and death below. On the right side of the chart, we show the crosses that our model is projecting in the near future.
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Every number here comes from replaying the model back to 2017 - every golden cross and death cross it would have projected, on every bar, with nothing after that bar visible to it - then checking each one against what the market actually did. The ones whose cross never came are counted as wrong. We would rather show you a real number than a flattering one.
| projected | n | exact bar | ±1 | ±2 | vs chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 bars out | 192,599 | 75% | 96% | 98% | 41× |
| 4-6 bars out | 184,315 | 42% | 81% | 90% | 30× |
| 7-10 bars out | 214,603 | 23% | 58% | 75% | 26× |
| 11-15 bars out | 234,529 | 12% | 35% | 53% | 18× |
| 16-20 bars out | 212,330 | 7% | 20% | 33% | 12× |
| 21-30 bars out | 323,605 | 4% | 12% | 20% | 7× |
| every projection | 1,361,981 | 24% | 45% | 57% | 20× |
| projected | n | exact bar | ±1 | ±2 | vs chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 bars out | 144,550 | 76% | 96% | 98% | 38× |
| 4-6 bars out | 138,446 | 45% | 82% | 91% | 29× |
| 7-10 bars out | 159,912 | 25% | 60% | 77% | 25× |
| 11-15 bars out | 176,954 | 12% | 36% | 55% | 18× |
| 16-20 bars out | 159,834 | 7% | 21% | 35% | 12× |
| 21-30 bars out | 245,325 | 4% | 12% | 20% | 7× |
| every projection | 1,025,021 | 25% | 46% | 58% | 20× |
| projected | n | exact bar | ±1 | ±2 | vs chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 bars out | 19,846 | 75% | 96% | 98% | 38× |
| 4-6 bars out | 19,193 | 43% | 80% | 89% | 28× |
| 7-10 bars out | 22,677 | 23% | 58% | 75% | 24× |
| 11-15 bars out | 25,662 | 12% | 35% | 54% | 18× |
| 16-20 bars out | 23,305 | 7% | 21% | 35% | 12× |
| 21-30 bars out | 35,482 | 4% | 13% | 21% | 7× |
| every projection | 146,165 | 24% | 45% | 57% | 19× |
vs chance is the column to read first. On any given bar about 3% of tickers happen to cross inside a two-bar window anyway - that is the bar every number here has to clear. 1× would mean we added nothing. Everything above it is the part we built.
Cruxta · 50/200 moving-average crosses on US equities. Recorded crosses are observations. Projected crosses are projections, not advice.