Market Cross Projections
Most of the open daily cross projections on US stocks we track are death crosses right now, 265 out of 416. Below is the share of every open cross projection on US stocks heading for a golden cross against a death cross, on each timeframe, back to 2017, and what followed each time it went to an extreme.
Which way the market is leaning now
The lean is a preview of the stocks' own crosses. When most of them are projected to death crosses, market breadth has been falling, and in the record since 2017 it kept falling for weeks after peaks like these. It says nothing about where the S&P 500 goes next.
Daily cross projections on US stocks 416 151 golden · 265 death
The lean since 2017
The golden share of every open cross projection on US stocks, bar by bar, on the timeframe the switch is on. The shaded band is 85% death or more; the dots are the peaks of the waves in the table below.
Daily lean since Jun 2017
4-hour lean since Nov 2026
Weekly lean since Jul 2020
Up to 16 Oct 2026 on the daily and 5 Oct 2026 on the weekly the line is H018's replay of the archive: stocks (common shares and ADRs) over the board's price and volume floor, the daily from June 2017 and the weekly from July 2020, once the 200 had the history behind it. After the rule marked "live" it is the engine's own count over every stock we track, the board's rule; where the two overlapped in September and October 2026 they were about half a point apart. The 4-hour has no archive line: it starts with the engine's rows.
What followed each wave
Every time 85% or more of the open daily cross projections were death crosses, from the archive since 2017.
| wave began | sample | peak | death share at the peak | open at the peak | lasted | breadth at the start | 20 bars on | 60 bars on | S&P 500, 20 bars | 60 bars | 120 bars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2018 | in-sample | 9 Feb 2018 | 85% | 288 | 3 bars | 72% | 68% | 56% | +6.5% | +2.1% | +8.0% |
| 11 Oct 2018 | in-sample | 29 Oct 2018 | 94% | 501 | 31 bars | 56% | 45% | 20% | +3.1% | −5.2% | +6.0% |
| 23 Aug 2019 | in-sample | 27 Aug 2019 | 93% | 348 | 8 bars | 63% | 59% | 61% | +4.7% | +9.5% | +18.5% |
| 25 Feb 2020 | in-sample | 27 Mar 2020 | 100% | 525 | 32 bars | 74% | 35% | 12% | −22.2% | −5.0% | +7.7% |
| 24 Mar 2021 | in-sample | 24 Mar 2021 | 88% | 206 | 3 bars | 88% | 86% | 82% | +6.4% | +7.1% | +14.6% |
| 14 Jul 2021 | in-sample | 19 Aug 2021 | 90% | 384 | 30 bars | 81% | 77% | 64% | +1.7% | +0.6% | +9.5% |
| 9 May 2022 | in-sample | 10 May 2022 | 90% | 295 | 6 bars | 28% | 23% | 14% | +4.4% | +4.0% | −2.3% |
| 10 Oct 2022 | in-sample | 20 Oct 2022 | 89% | 276 | 10 bars | 21% | 18% | 34% | +5.5% | +5.4% | +14.1% |
| 16 Mar 2023 | in-sample | 23 Mar 2023 | 95% | 517 | 10 bars | 63% | 56% | 52% | +4.1% | +9.5% | +12.3% |
| 19 Sep 2023 | in-sample | 3 Oct 2023 | 95% | 393 | 19 bars | 58% | 43% | 38% | −1.5% | +6.3% | - |
| 5 Jul 2024 | holdout | 9 Jul 2024 | 89% | 329 | 4 bars | 70% | 70% | 67% | −3.9% | +3.4% | +8.4% |
| 11 Mar 2025 | holdout | 8 Apr 2025 | 96% | 624 | 29 bars | 53% | 44% | 27% | −10.7% | +6.7% | +15.2% |
| 13 Mar 2026 | holdout | 30 Mar 2026 | 94% | 418 | 17 bars | 68% | 58% | 58% | +3.6% | +11.3% | +16.7% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | holdout | 14 Oct 2026 | 89% | 436 | open at 16 Oct 2026, 12 bars in | 58% | - | - | - | - | - |
Breadth is the share of US listings with the 50 above the 200. The S&P 500 columns are its fund, SPY, from the day the wave began, for context only: H018 found the lean carries no read on where the index goes next (its second result), so nothing here says what the S&P will do.
Where these come from: H018 (registered 26 Oct 2026) replayed the lean bar by bar on the archive from 2017, each bar seeing nothing after it. A wave begins when 85% or more of 100 or more open daily projections are death crosses after 20 bars under that line, and ends when the share falls 10 points under its peak. 2017 to 2023 is the sample the rule was drawn from, 2024 on the holdout it was checked against. The archive counts stocks (common shares and ADRs) over the board's floor.